COMMENTARY--The election this week will be a ho-hum affair here in Austin, where constitutional amendments do not typically generate much electricity.
There are some truly exciting elections we tea-leaf readers will be watching closely.
Republicans have a very good shot at winning two out of three elections, nationally. This is despite the fact that national polls continue to show low approval ratings for the GOP and even lower Republican self-identification.
Long considered a Democratic stronghold, a defeat of incumbent Gov. John Corzine, in New Jersey, would give Republicans a legitimate boost in their efforts to regain some momentum after six years of decline.
The issues are local reflecting a truly bad economy. The race is a dead heat and will boil down to turnout. If I had to bet, I would handicap for the Democratic incumbent.
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Elections
All eyes are looking at three national races hoping to find insight into voter sentiment ten months into the new administration. News 8s Harvey Kronberg offers his perspective.
 
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The least consequential race is the New York congressional seat which ironically is the race that has generated the most fireworks. It is the least consequential because it is a solidly Republican district. It is the most interesting because conservatives repudiated Republican establishment efforts to support a moderate.
The Republican withdrew from the race in light of a Fox and talk radio driven rebellion that made the splinter Conservative Party candidate a national cause celebre.
But I find the Virginia governor’s race most interesting and the one should be a true cause for Republican celebration. It is an open seat with no incumbent. The race is interesting because Virginia broke out of its former Republican mold to go with Barack Obama in 2008.
The largest political party in the country today is not a political party at all. It is self-identified independents whose ranks continue to grow. It was defections by former Republicans to the independent column in 2008 that largely drove the Obama victory. Virginia demonstrates that while harsh conservatism does not generally appeal to this group, unhappiness with the President and the direction of the country along with a poorly run campaign gives the Republican a probable win.
My takeaway is President Obama has re-ignited voter passion among remaining self-identified Republicans. Conservative muscle flexing won a big one in the New York congressional race by chasing out the moderate. The GOP has a shot in New Jersey, but the big prize is Virginia. As go the independent voters, so goes the country.
One last observation, in contrast to New York, New Jersey and Virginia, Houston will be electing a new mayor this week and there are no conservative candidates on the ballot. Go figure.
